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IJSTR >> Volume 9 - Issue 1, January 2020 Edition

International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research  
International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

Website: http://www.ijstr.org

ISSN 2277-8616

Potential New Hybrid Models Of DIR By Using GAM And FCM

[Full Text]



Norziha Che Him, Nazeera Mohamad, Mohd Saifullah Rusiman



Hybrid Model, DIR, GAM, FCM, Selangor



Dengue is one of popular infectious disease where mortality rate nowadays recorded one-third of the world’s population lived in the high risk areas of dengue infection. This study proposed a new hybrid models of dengue incidence rate (DIR) by using two statistical models known as negative binomial Generalised Additive Model (GAM) and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) Model. The data used consists of response variable known as monthly DIR and monthly climatic and non-climatic variables that covers Selangor state of Malaysia for the period of January 2010 to August 2015. This study has successfully presents the statistically significant values for climatic and non-climatic as explanatory variables that influenced DIR. Statistical results show that the climatic factors which are rainfall at current month up to 3-month and number of rainy days at current month up to lag 3-month are significant to DIR. Besides, an interaction between rainfall and number of rainy days presents strong positive relationship to DIR. In addition, non-climatic factors such as population density, number of locality and lag DIR from 1-month to 3-month also describe statistical significant relationship towards DIR. Meanwhile, for both of clustering techniques applied which are district data clustering and FCM data clustering, four models have been developed known as Model B, Model C, Model D and Model E with Model A is from the original dataset. Comparison values of Deviance (D), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) conclude that two new models with lowest values of D, AIC and BIC known as Model C and Model E could potentially present dengue incidence in Selangor, Malaysia from January 2010 to August 2015.



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