IJSTR

International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

IJSTR@Facebook IJSTR@Twitter IJSTR@Linkedin
Home About Us Scope Editorial Board Blog/Latest News Contact Us
CALL FOR PAPERS
AUTHORS
DOWNLOADS
CONTACT
QR CODE
IJSTR-QR Code

IJSTR >> Volume 8 - Issue 3, March 2019 Edition



International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research  
International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

Website: http://www.ijstr.org

ISSN 2277-8616



Achieving Self-Sufficiency Through Sugar Supply And Demand Policies (Dynamics System Approach)

[Full Text]

 

AUTHOR(S)

Duwi Yunitasari

 

KEYWORDS

Self-sufficiency of WCS, NSIR, Dynamics System, Scenarios, Existing Condition, Sugarcane, Suppy and Demand policies

 

ABSTRACT

In 2010 to 2016, Indonesia imported white crystal sugar (WCS) to fulfill the household consumption. The objectives of this research are to: 1) examine the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency of WCS without the policy of National Sugar Industry Revitalization (NSIR), 2) analyze the impact of NSIR policy on the achievement of national sugar self-sufficiency, and 3) formulate an alternative policy of WCS production. This study used primary and secondary data. The primary data collection was conducted by interviewing the respondents, including sugar cane farmers, representatives from the Center for Sugar Research and Development (P3GI), National Plantation Company (PTPN) XI, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, as well as from the sugar factory representatives. Secondary data were taken from related institutions, i.e., Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), sugar factory, and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture. The modeling simulation is conducted using Powersim studio software to analyze national sugar industry from 2010 to 2025. The analysis period is based on the implementation year of the NSIR policy. The model behavior in actual condition indicates that national self-sufficiency is not achieved without the implementation of NSIR policy as indicated by the negative supply of WCS during the simulation period. Therefore, a joint NSIR policy is required to achieve national self-sufficiency. Applying 8 (eight) policy scenarios, results of the research show that: 1) in partial, the scenario of NSIR policy fails to support the achievement of national sugar self-sufficiency, 2) policy simulation of scenario 5 (demand side), i.e., the reduction of WCS consumption can make Indonesia achieves national sugar self-sufficiency, and 3) simultaneous NSIR policy on scenario 4 (supply side), i.e., the land expansion, productivity, and sugar yield, can make Indonesia achieves national sugar self-sufficiency.

 

REFERENCES

[1] (BKP) Badan Ketahanan Pangan. 2010. Statistik Ketahanan Pangan Tahun 2009. Jakarta (ID): BKP.

[2] Asmarantaka RW, Baga LM, Suprehatin, Maryono. 2012. Analisis Usahatani Tebu Rakyat di Lampung. In: Bayu Krisnamurthi, editor. Ekonomi Gula. Jakarta (ID): PT Gramedia. Hlm 61-76.

[3] Asmarantaka, R. W. 2012. Usaha Tani Tebu dan Daya Saing Industri Gula Indonesia. Di dalam: Bayu Krisnamurthi, editor. Ekonomi Gula. Jakarta (ID): PT Gramedia. Hlm 31-60.

[4] BPS. 2016. Statistik Tebu Indonesia 2015. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/48375-ID-statistik-tebu-indonesia-2015.pdf

[5] BPS. 2017. Proyeksi Penduduk menurut provinsi 2010-2035, https://www.bps.go.id/linkTabelStatis/view/id/1274. Diunduh 2 Agustus 2017.

[6] Coyle, R.G. 1996. System Dynamics Modelling: Practical Approach. Chapman & Hall. London.

[7] Departemen Pertanian. (2005). Rencana Aksi Pemantapan Ketahanan Pangan 2005-2010. Jakarta: Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan (Balitbang).

[8] Mitchell, Donald. 2004. Sugar policies opportunity for change. Policy, Research working paper ; no. WPS 3222. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/893951468781804752/Sugar-policies-opportunity-for-change

[9] Gerald C. Nelson and Martin Panggabean, 2011, The Costs of Indonesian Sugar Policy: A Policy Analysis Matrix Approach , American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 73, No. 3 (Aug., 1991), pp. 703-712 URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1242822 .Hanani N, Sujarwo, Asmara R. 2012. Peran Koperasi Dalam Sistem Agribisnis Tebu Rakyat. Di dalam: Bayu Krisnamurthi, editor. Ekonomi Gula. Jakarta (ID): PT Gramedia. Hlm 305-318.

[10] Hattas, Z. 2011. Pola Konsumsi Masyarakat. http://ekonkop,blogspot,com/2011/11/polakonsumsi-masyarakat,html

[11] Hauke, J. E., D. W. Wicharn, A. Y. Reitsch. 2001. Business Forecasting, Practises – Hall, Inc. New Jersey.

[12] Heylighen F, Joslyn C. 1992. What is Systems Theory?. http://www.physical geography.net/fundamentals/4b.html. [23 oktober 2007]

[13] Keerthipala, A.P. 2002. Impact of Macro-Economic Policies on the Sugar Sector of Sri Lanka. Sugar Tech, Vol.4 (3&4): p. 87-96 (2002).

[14] Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia. 2014. Indonesia Sugar Outlook 2015-2019. Jakarta.

[15] Kementerian Pertanian. 2017. Road Map Peningkatan Produksi Menuju Swasembada Gula 2016-2045. Kementerian Pertanian, Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan 2016. Jakarta.

[16] Laila M. El-Sharif, Khairy H. El Eshmawiy, Karima A.M. Awad and Rania M. Barghash., 2009., Economic Potentialities Achieve Self-Sufficiency from Egyptian Sugar under the International Variables., American-Eurasian J. Agric. & Environ. Sci., 5 (5): 655-663, 2009 ISSN 1818-6769 © IDOSI Publications, 2009.

[17] M. Asif Masoood* and Malik Anver Javed., 2004, FORECAST MODELS FOR SUGARCANE IN PAKISTAN, Pak. J Agri. Sci., Vol. 41(1-2), 2004.

[18] Muhammadi, E. Aminullah and B. Soesilo. 2001. Analisis Sistem Dinamis; Lingkungan Hidup Sosial, Ekonomi, Manajemen. UMJ Press. Jakarta.

[19] NSC. 2017. Jurnal Gula (Nusantara Sugar Community). Volume 41, Maret 2017. Jakarta

[20] Penlope TY. 2007. A sytem dynamics model for supply chain management in a resources contrained setting [dissertation]. Departemen of Information Systems, Faculty of Computing and Information Technology Makarere University

[21] Perum Perhutani. 2005. Laporan Tahunan 2004. Diterbitkan oleh Direksi Perum Perhutani.

[22] Philip naftali mbalwa, Henry Kombo, Lydia Chepkoech, Shadrack Koech, Paul Mbiti Shavulimo,. 2014. Effect of Corporate Governance on Performance of Sugar Manufacturing Firms in Kenya: A Case of Sugar Manufacturing Firms in Western Kenya. IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) e-ISSN: 2278-487X, p-ISSN: 2319-7668. Volume 16, Issue 11.Ver. II (Nov. 2014), PP 86-112 www.iosrjournals.org

[23] Surono, Sulastri. 2006. Kebijakan Swasembada Gula di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol VII. No. 1, 2006, Juli, hal 65-81. Jakarta

[24] Susilohadi GN, Herawati, Budiati NH, and Feryanto. 2012. Integrasi Antara Kebijakan Sosial Ekonomi dan Aplikasi Teknologi Proses Produksi di Industri Gula. Di dalam: Bayu Krisnamurthi, editor. Ekonomi Gula. Jakarta (ID): PT Gramedia. Hlm 337-360.

[25] UNICA, 2009,Sugarcane industry in Brazil: Ethanol, Sugar, Bioelectrycity. UNICA – Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association.www. unica@unica.com.br

[26] Widyastutik, 2005, Mungkinkah Indonesia Mencapai Swasembada Gula Secara Berkelanjutan, Tesis. Magister Sains. Program Pasca Sarjana Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.

[27] Widyastutik, 2005, Mungkinkah Indonesia Mencapai Swasembada Gula Secara Berkelanjutan, Tesis. Magister Sains. Program Pasca Sarjana Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.

[28] Yunitasari, D. 2015. Model Pengembangan Agroindustri Gula Tebu sebagai Upaya Peningkatan Perekonomian Wilayah di Jawa Timur, Disertasi, Institut Pertanian Bogor.

[29] Zaini A, Siregar H, Hakim DB, and Hutagaol MP. 2012. Perburuan Rente di Industri Gula Indonesia. Di dalam: Byu Krisnamurthi, editor. Ekonomi Gula. Jakarta (ID): PT Gramedia. hlm 165-192.

[30] Zaini A. 2011. Analisis Ekonomi Politik Swasembada Gula Indonesia: Kombinasi Model Oligopolistik Dinamik dan Fungsi Preferensi Politik [Disertasi]. Bogor (ID): Institut Pertanian Bogor.

[31] Granco G, Marcellus M C, Jason S B, Ana C S A,. 2017. Exploring the policy and social factors fueling the expansion and shift of sugarcane production in the Brazilian Cerrado, Springer, GeoJournal (2017) 82:63–80, DOI 10.1007/s10708-015-9666-y.

[32] Bordonal R O, João LNC, Rattan L, Eduardo BF, Bruna GO, Newton La S, 2018, Sustainability of sugarcane production in Brazil: A review, Agronomy for Sustainable Development (2018) 38: 13 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-018-0490-x.

[33] Hamdi, H, 2016, Sustainability in Sugarcane Production: Opportunities and Limitations in SouthWest of Iran, Sugar Tech (Nov-Dec 2016) 18(6):642–646 DOI 10.1007/s12355-016-0493-3