International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

IJSTR@Facebook IJSTR@Twitter IJSTR@Linkedin
Home About Us Scope Editorial Board Blog/Latest News Contact Us

IJSTR >> Volume 5 - Issue 6, June 2016 Edition

International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research  
International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

Website: http://www.ijstr.org

ISSN 2277-8616

Using Computer Techniques To Predict OPEC Oil Prices For Period 2000 To 2015 By Time-Series Methods

[Full Text]



Mohammad Esmail Ahmad, Ali Jalal Hussian, Monem A. Mohammed



Fluctuations in oil prices, prediction, Time-Series Forecasting, computer techniques, Holt Winter, Exponential Smoothing, Analyzing Techniques, Stationary, information technology.



The instability in the world (and OPEC) oil process results from many factors through a long time. The problems can be summarized as that the oil exports don’t constitute a large share of N.I. only, but it also makes up most of the saving of the oil states. The oil prices affect their market through the interaction of supply and demand forces of oil. The research hypothesis states that the movement of oil prices caused shocks, crises, and economic problems. These shocks happen due to changes in oil prices need to make a prediction within the framework of economic planning in a short run period in order to avoid shocks through using computer techniques by time series models.



[1] Abraham, B. and LEDOTER, J. 1983, “Statistical methods for forecasting”, Johan Wiley, NEWYORK.

[2] Al-HEETY, A., 2000, “Economies of petrol, Mosel University Pub., Mosel (Arabic Reference).

[3] Al-MAZINI, E., 2013, “The factors affect the fluctuations in world oil prices (2000-2010)”, Al-AZHAR University Journal – Gaza, human sciences, vol. 15, Nov.

[4] Anderson, T.W, 1971, “The statistical analysis of Time series, John Wiley, NEWYORK.

[5] Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., 2015, “Modern Business statistic with Microsoft Excel”, CENGAGE learning Pub., NEWYORK.

[6] Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., Williams, T., 2011, “Statistics for Business and Economics”, Eleventh Edition, CENGAGE Learning pub., NEWYORK.

[7] Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., 1976, “Time series analysis Forecasting and control, Holden-Day Inc., San Francisco.

[8] El-DABAGH, M., 2010, “Design of Instant-Mail System using infrastructure of information and communication technology”, Higher Diploma thesis, Mosul University – college of Administration and Economic, (Arabic Reference).

[9] ESMAEEL, N., 1981, “Determine the Arabian Crude oil Prices in the world Market”, AL-RASHID Pub., Baghdad (Arabic reference).

[10] JAWAD, B., 2013, “Wide Preaching and Information Technology and their Impact on Achieving customers satisfaction”, Master thesis, Karbala University – college of Administration and Economic, (Arabic Reference).

[11] MONEM M.A. 2011, “The analysis and Forecasting in Time series”, SULIMANI University Pub., SULIMANI. (Arabic reference).

[12] PADHY, N., and PANIGRAHI, R., 2012, “Engineering information Technology, International Journal of computer, Vol.2, NO.5, Oct.

[13] RAJARAMAN, V., 2013, “Introduction to Information Technology”, second edition, PHI learning Private Limited.

[14] SIM, C.H., 1978, “AMIXED GAMMA ARAMA (1, 1) Model for river flow Time Series”, Water resources research, Vol.23, NO.1.

[15] SPYROS, M., Steven, C., and ROB, J., 1998, “Forecasting methods and applications”.

[16] SULTAN, S., 2005, “Health information technology and its impact on job satisfaction – a study on opinions of sample of health technologies users in Ibn Sina & El-Khansa educational Hospital”, Master thesis, University of Mosul-College of Administration and Economic, (Arabic Reference).

[17] TSAY, R.S., and TIAO, G.C., 1948, “Consistent estimates Autoregressive Parameters and extended sample Autocorrelation function for stationary and non-stationary ARIMA models”, JASA, Vol.79, No.384.

[18] WEI, w.w.s.1990, “Time series methods”.

[19] ZAIONTS, C., 2015, “Statistics using EXCIL Succinctly, Sync fusion Inc.

5.2 Electronic Websites:
[20] www.marketoracle.co.uk

[21] www.opec.org

[22] www.otexts.org/fpp/7/5