A Study Of Polio Disease In Pakistan Using Gis Approach
Usman Ahmad, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Muhammad Luqman
Keywords: Spatio-temporal, Spatial statistics, Hotspot, Moranís I, Polio disease.
Abstract: Pakistan is one of the countries in the world, who is affected with polio virus. The main objective of this present study was applying spatial statistics to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and areas of hotspot detection for describing the pattern of polio disease in Pakistan. In this study, statistical data smoothing process was used to decrease noise in polio records which is registered at a district level from 2011 to 2014. Moran's I (Spatial analysis method) was applied to measure spatial association in polio disease distribution in study area and examined how districts were spread or clustered. Getis-Ord Gi* (d) statistics was utilized for the identification of cold spot and hotspot within study area and IDW technique applied for Interpolation. This predicts the trend of polio disease distribution around the study area. The incidence rate of polio disease through mapping depicted uneven distribution of poliovirus in affected districts of Pakistan. Spatial statistics are used to perform Moranís I test and it measured considerable positive spatial autocorrelation of polio disease incidences for previous four successive years. The results depicted spatially clustered and spatial pattern of polio disease in study area. The research concluded that the polio cases were increased in northwestern side of KPK province and southern part of the Sindh province of Pakistan over the past two years (2013Ė2014).
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