Dynamic Model Of Suspended Sediment Concentration, River Discharge And Rainfall Intensity At Padang Watershed
North Sumatra, Indonesia
Kemala Sari Lubis, Erwin Masrul Harahap, Abdul Rauf, Zainal Arifin Hasibuan
Keyword : dynamic model, suspended sediment concentration, river discharge, rainfall intensity, Padang watershed
Abstract : Sediment transport has relationship with hydrologic input primarily river discharge and rainfall intensity. Fluctuation of river discharge and rainfall intensity have great effect on suspended sediment concentration. Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model (DLMs) is used to study relation of input hydrology and basin response variables. Response variables were taken from suspended sediment concentration and river discharge from a year July 2012 to June 2013 at two outlets at Padang sub-watershed (upstream) and Padang Hilir sub-watershed (downstream) of Padang watershed, North Sumatra. Datas were analyzed by regression analysis of Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) as a dependent variables, while river discharge and rainfall intensity as independent variables. The results showed that river discharge value are the highest on July 2012 and October 2012 at upstream and downstream of Padang watershed, respectively. The SSC value are the highest on July 2012 and April 2013 at upstream and downstream of Padang watershed, respectively. There is a weak correlation (r2= 0.002) between SSC and rainfall intensity at source points of outlet at upstream of Padang watershed. There is decreasing of forest, paddy and plantation areas but increasing of bush and farming areas from 2012 to 2015 at upstream of Padang watershed. Meanwhile at downstream of Padang watershed were increasing of plantation areas since 2012 to 2015
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