Regression And Time Series Analysis Of Loan Default At Minescho Cooperative Credit Union, Tarkwa
Otoo, H., Takyi Appiah, S., Wiah, E. N.
Keywords: Loan, forecasting, Stationary, differencing, partial autocorrelation, cyclic
Abstract: Lending in the form of loans is a principal business activity for banks, credit unions and other financial institutions. This forms a substantial amount of the bank’s assets. However, when these loans are defaulted, it tends to have serious effects on the financial institutions. This study sought to determine the trend and forecast loan default at Minescho CreditUnion, Tarkwa. A secondary data from the Credit Union was analyzed using Regression Analysis and the Box-Jenkins method of Time Series. From the Regression Analysis, there was a moderately strong relationship between the amount of loan default and time. Also the amount of loan default had an increasing trend. The two years forecast of the amount of loan default oscillated initially and remained constant from 2016 onwards.
 Aballey, F.B. (2009), “Bad Loan Portfolio: A Case Study of Agricultural Development Bank”, Unpublished Dissertation, KNUST.
 Adhikari, R. and Agrawal, R.K. (2013), “An Introductory Study on Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, Pearson Education Press, Delhi. pp. 12-14.
 Bluman, G.A. (2009), Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach, Von Hoffman Press, St Louis, USA. 7th Edition. 401pp
 Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. (2001),
 Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2nd Ed. 449 pp.
 Chatfield, C. (1996), “The Analysis of Time Series”, Chapman and Hall, New York, USA. 5th Edition, 248pp.
 Gorter, N. and Bloem, M. (2002). “The Macroeconomic Statistical Treatment of Non-Performing Loans”, Publication of The Organisation for EconomicCorporation and Development,[ http://www.dbj.go.jp/english/IC/active/hot/adfiap/pdf/nagarajan.pdf], (accessed 18 March, 2015)
 Hipel, K.W and Mcleod, A.I, (1994), Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems, Elsevier Science B.V, 1012pp.
 Montgomery, D.C. and Runger, G.C. (2003), Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York, USA. pp. 279-280.
 Murray, J. (2011). “Default on loan”, United States Business and Taxes Guide. 84pp
 Okorie, A. (1986). “Major Determinants of Agricultural Loan Repayments, Savings and Development, X(1)
 Otoo, H., Wiah, E.N., Nabubie, I. B, Ahialekedzi, I. K., (2015) “Determining and Forecasting the Trend of Incidents at a Mining Company in Tarkwa”, International Journal of Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 1121-1130
 Pearson, R. and Greef, M. (2006). “Causes of Default Among Housing Micro Loan Clients, FinMark Trust Rural Housing Loan Fund”, National Housing Finance Corporation and Development Bank of Southern Africa, South Africa.
 Yavuz Yildirim and Gazanfer Ünal, (2011), “Modelling ISE100 with continuous AR (1) Model”, International Journal of Business and Management Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1 , pp. 1309-8047