Using Markov Chain To Predict The Probability Of Rural And Urban Child Mortality Rates Reduction In Ghana
Patience Pokuaa Gambrah, Yvonne Adzadu
Keyword: child mortality rate, Ghana mortality rates, Markov chain, mortality rate prediction, rural mortality, urban mortality
Abstract: Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In this paper, Markov chain is used to predict the probability of rural and urban child mortality rate reduction in Ghana. The probabilities of whether the rural and urban mortality rates will increase was obtained from the current data where the probability of rates increasing is less than 20%. After applying Markov, it was realized that the current rates are not likely to change, that is the reduction rates will remain the same if proactive measures are not put in place to reduce the CMR drastically. It is therefore recommended to the government to put in more effort in ensuring that the rates go down. This is because if we depend on the current rates we will not be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 by 2015.
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