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Safety Assessment And Accident Prediction On Expressways Using Vehicle Dynamic Simulation Technique
[Full Text]
AUTHOR(S)
Eko Deprianto, Ming Foong Soong, Rahizar Ramli, Ahmad Abdullah Saifizul
KEYWORDS
vehicle dynamic simulation, safety assessment, expressway, safety risk, road accident, road virtualization
ABSTRACT
Road safety assessment is crucial to reducing accidents because any preventive measure is only relevant and thus effective when there is understanding on the nature of accidents and the associated safety risks. Conventional safety assessment on roads is based on post-accident approach, for which the nature of accidents and safety risks are suggested from accident data. Such approach is obviously reactive rather than proactive, since this means accidents have already taken place when safety risk analysis is performed. This study proposes using vehicle dynamic simulation as the alternative, pre-accident method to assess safety, targeting at expressways. To verify the effectiveness of this proposal, the method was tested on three sections of a local major interstate expressway, known to be accident-prone, using road profiles generated virtually. Several simulation parameters were varied to emulate various combinations of vehicle, road and driver elements in the driving events. From simulation outcomes, it was determined that vehicle loss of control, which leads to road accidents, can be predicted by erratic response in certain vehicle dynamic response parameters, namely roll and lateral acceleration, together with inspection of lane departure from simulation visuals. The method was successful in replicating actual accidents at those known accident hotspots, in which the nature is related to lateral and longitudinal dynamics of vehicles that are normally encountered in free-flow traffic of expressways. This shows that vehicle dynamic simulation is an effective pre-accident method of assessing safety of an expressway. With this in mind, it is thus expected to be applicable to the pre-evaluation of safety of many newly-constructed expressways.
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