|
Spillover Effect Of Us Economic Policy Uncertainty On Indonesian Economic Growth
[Full Text]
AUTHOR(S)
SitiKomariyah, Mohammad Saleh, Darwis Muhammad Ahrori
KEYWORDS
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Spillover Effect, Financial Channel, Trade Channel, Indonesia, US, SVAR.
ABSTRACT
This study aims to examine the spillover effect of the uncertainty of US economic policy on Indonesia's economic growth. SVAR model is used to observe the connecting channel of the spillover effect. The results show that the uncertainty of US economic policy can spill on Indonesia's economic growth through FDI as a financial channel. The higher the percentage of US FDI to total FDI in Indonesia, the more vulnerable the Indonesian economy will be when there is shock in the US economic policy uncertainty.
REFERENCES
[1] M. N. Nugroho and M. Christian, “Liquidity Rebalancing,” in Perkembangan Ekonomi Keuangan dan Kerja Sama Internasional - Edisi III 2018, Bank Indonesia, 2018, pp. 125–152.
[2] G. Georgiadis, “Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy,” 2015.
[3] P. Prabhakar, “ECONOMIC CRISIS AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN,” J. Bus. Thought, vol. 6, pp. 75–99, 2015.
[4] J. Wang and J. Whalley, “THE TRADE PERFORMANCE OF ASIAN ECONOMIES DURING AND FOLLOWING THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS,” Cambridge, 2010.
[5] C. Carrera, F. P. Forero, and N. Ramírez-rondán, “Effects of the U . S . Quantitative Easing on a Small Open Economy Effects of the U.S . Quantitative Easing on a Small Open Economy,” Lima, 2014.
[6] S. Baker, N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis, “Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?,” Chicago Booth Res. Pap., no. 12-06, 2012.
[7] N. B. Trung, “The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach,” North Am. J. Econ. Financ., vol. 48, pp. 90–110, 2019.
[8] A. Curth, “Uncertainty and the US economy: An investigation of the economic effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US and Europe,” Erasmus University Rotterdam, 2018.
[9] I. Fontaine, L. Didier, and J. Razafindravaosolonirina, “Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China,” Econ. Lett., vol. 155, pp. 121–125, 2017.
[10] C. H. J. Cheng, “Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea,” J. Asian Econ., vol. 51, pp. 1–11, 2017.
[11] Bank Indonesia, “Kajian Ekonomi Regional Provinsi DKI Jakarta Triwulan III 2011,” Jakarta, 2011.
[12] V. Rai and L. Suchanek, “The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets,” 2014.
[13] J. Chow, F. Jaumotte, S. G. Park, and Y. S. Zhang, “Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation,” Washiington DC, 2015.
[14] S. Saghaian and M. Reed, “SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE’S RECENT QUANTITATIVE EASING ON CANADIAN COMMODITY PRICES,” Int. J. Food Agric. Econ., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 33–43, 2015.
[15] G. Ganelli and N. Tawk, “Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach,” 2016.
[16] T. Dahlhaus and G. Vasishtha, “The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies,” 2014.
[17] A. Dizioli, J. Guajardo, V. Klyuev, R. Mano, and M. Raissi, “Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies,” 2016.
[18] F. Zhai and P. Morgan, “Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis,” 2016.
[19] C. Kolerus, P. N’Diaye, and C. Saborowski, “Chinas’s Footprint in Global Commodity Markets,” 2016.
[20] Bank Indonesia, “Kajian stabilitas keuangan: Mitigasi Risiko Sistemik Melalui Penguatan Koordinasi Antar Institusi di Tengah Konsolidasi Perekonomian Domestik,” 2017.
[21] V. Plakandaras, P. Gogas, and T. Papadimitriou, “The Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty in Forecasting Financial Markets: A Machine Learning Approach,” Algorithms, vol. 12, no. 1, 2019.
[22] A. Khaliq and I. Noy, “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth : Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia,” J. Econ. Lit., vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 313–325, 2007.
[23] X. Li and X. Liu, “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth : An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship,” World Dev., vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 393–407, 2005.
[24] P. Stockhammar and P. Österholm, “Effects of US Policy Uncertainty on Swedish GDP Growth,” Empir Econ, 2015.
[25] H. Armelius, I. Hull, and H. Stenbacka, “The Timing of Uncertainty Shocks in a Small Open Economy,” Econ. Lett., vol. 155, pp. 31–34, 2017.
|
